Is the current rally telegraphing a durable peace plan in West Asia, boosted by United States (US) President Donald Trump's incoherent and contradictory posts on social media?
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the Iran conflict and its impact on global energy supplies during a phone call.
Iran has asserted that maritime movement through the Strait of Hormuz will be strictly controlled by Tehran, stating that passage will be allowed only through designated routes and under Iranian approval.
Markets face risk of a prolonged bear phase as oil shocks and geopolitical tensions test inflation, growth and investor confidence globally, points out Debashis Basu.
A vessel carrying 20,000 metric tonnes of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) arrived at Deendayal Port Authority in Kandla, Gujarat, after crossing the Strait of Hormuz amid the West Asia crisis.
The US has temporarily permitted India to accept Russian oil already on ships to ensure energy supplies amid the conflict with Iran. This short-term measure is not expected to significantly benefit Russia financially.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar discussed the West Asia conflict and its impact on energy supplies with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov and EU's Foreign Policy chief Kaja Kallas.
Qatar has halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after its facilities came under attack amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, disrupting supplies to India and squeezing feedstock availability for key domestic sectors.
US President Donald Trump stated that Iran is eager to make a deal and predicted a sharp decline in oil prices due to abundant supply, amidst a Senate resolution to limit his war powers in Iran.
Indian benchmark equity indices, the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty, experienced a significant drop in early trade due to elevated oil prices, weak global market trends, and renewed fears of military operations in the Middle East following US President Donald Trump's statements regarding Iran. Track Sensex, Nifty on May 20.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
India imports nearly 60 percent of its LPG, with most cargo previously coming through the Strait of Hormuz, now closed for commercial shipping.
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
The United States has temporarily lifted sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil already in transit to ease soaring global crude prices, making 140 million barrels available to the market.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced a sharp decline in early trading due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, driving crude oil prices higher. Global market bearishness and foreign fund outflows further contributed to investor unease.
Indian-flagged vessels are navigating the Strait of Hormuz safely despite ongoing tensions in the region, ensuring the continued flow of vital energy supplies to India.
S&P Global Ratings warns that a sustained rise in crude oil prices to $130 per barrel could significantly slow India's economic growth, weaken fiscal metrics, and strain corporate and banking sector performance, potentially reducing growth by up to 80 basis points.
Calling such reports baseless, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said there was no such move under consideration.
A senior government official asserts India's independence in purchasing Russian oil, stating that US sanctions waivers merely remove friction but do not dictate India's energy policy. The official highlights India's commitment to energy security and affordability for its citizens.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit Beijing to discuss the West Asia conflict, the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and bilateral relations with Chinese leaders.
'Even last year, when India bought gold, the physical quantity was much less than the previous years.'
Indian stock markets are set to be influenced by ongoing developments in the US-Iran conflict, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the latest quarterly earnings reports from major corporates, with foreign investor activity also playing a crucial role.
Amid rising tensions, Iran reportedly launched ballistic missiles toward a US-UK military base, prompting concerns about regional stability and the potential for escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil price fluctuations, and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will significantly influence the Indian equity market this week.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased for the second time in a week, following a long freeze on revisions. The increase comes as global crude prices surge and state-run oil firms look to recoup losses.
India's state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs) are projected to incur under-recoveries of approximately Rs 80,000 crore on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sales in FY27 if current loss levels persist, according to rating agency Icra.
The Indian rupee is highly vulnerable among Asian currencies, with Barclays and MUFG warning of a potential depreciation towards 100/$ if the West Asia conflict persists, driven by widening current account deficits and elevated crude oil prices.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a virtual meeting with chief ministers to review preparedness and plans in light of the West Asia conflict, emphasising the importance of national unity and enhanced security measures.
Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis rode a motorcycle to work following Prime Minister Modi's appeal to cut down fuel consumption amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
The rupee weakened to a record low against the US dollar due to Gulf tensions, rising oil prices, and foreign capital outflows.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted some 20 per cent of the global flows but even if it opens, damages to production facilities in the region will take time to repair, points out Sunita Narain.
Amid rising tensions in West Asia, China is urging all parties to cease military operations, following Trump's appeal for help in securing the Strait of Hormuz.
The rupee recovered to 95.18 against the US dollar after hitting an all-time intra-day low of 95.44. The recovery was supported by possible RBI intervention amid renewed Gulf tensions and rising crude oil prices.
Indian oil marketing companies are incurring significant losses, selling petrol at a Rs 14 per litre loss and diesel at Rs 18 per litre, as elevated global crude oil prices, exacerbated by the West Asia crisis, outpace capped retail fuel rates, according to rating agency Icra.
The Trump administration has announced a temporary authorisation for countries to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea, aiming to stabilise global energy markets amid rising oil prices and tensions with Iran.
Foreign secretary Vikram Misri on Friday shared key details on agreements between India and the UAE, stating that the UAE will store up to 30 million barrels of crude oil in India's strategic petroleum reserve following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit.
Researchers at CSIR-NCL have developed a technology for producing dimethyl ether (DME) as an alternative to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), potentially reducing India's reliance on imports and enhancing energy security.
'If the war continue for a longer period of time, it is just a matter of time before the government will pass on some of the price increases.'
A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
India's wholesale price inflation surged to 8.30 per cent in April, up from 3.88 per cent in March, primarily driven by a significant increase in the prices of fuel, power, and crude petroleum, according to data from the commerce and industry ministry.
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